I would be interested in seeing you talk about belief and probability in cases where the deck is not quite so stacked as it is in your thermodynamic examples.
Okay: It’s less stacked for lottery tickets than thermodynamics, and it’s less stacked for roulette wheels than lottery tickets.
If you stick your fingers in the game anyway, it is mandatory to expect your fingers to get toasted, with not quite as extreme a probability.
The principles should be the same, but I imagine your argument will be less tractable. No?
The principles are exactly the same, and the real force of the argument is exactly unchanged. But to the unenlightened ones the argument seems to have less emotional force, and they do indeed try to ignore the laws of probability, and the expected proportion of them burn their hands.
I would be interested in seeing you talk about belief and probability in cases where the deck is not quite so stacked as it is in your thermodynamic examples.
Okay: It’s less stacked for lottery tickets than thermodynamics, and it’s less stacked for roulette wheels than lottery tickets.
If you stick your fingers in the game anyway, it is mandatory to expect your fingers to get toasted, with not quite as extreme a probability.
The principles should be the same, but I imagine your argument will be less tractable. No?
The principles are exactly the same, and the real force of the argument is exactly unchanged. But to the unenlightened ones the argument seems to have less emotional force, and they do indeed try to ignore the laws of probability, and the expected proportion of them burn their hands.