One could say that there is still a difference between probabilities so high/low that you can use ~1/~0 writings and probable but not THAT probable situations such as 98:2
I don’t think that Eliezer would disagree with this.
As I understand it, he generally argues for following the numbers and in this post he tries to bind the reader’s emotions to reality: He gives examples that make it emotionally clear that it already is in our interest to follow the numbers (‘hot water need not *necessarily* burn you, but you correctly do not count on this. Getting burned is bad’) and forces one to contrast this realisation with examples where common intuition/behaviour doesn’t follow the numbers (‘you do not *necessarily* loose money in a lottery, but you are mistaken to count on this. Loosing money is bad’).
I don’t think that Eliezer would disagree with this.
As I understand it, he generally argues for following the numbers and in this post he tries to bind the reader’s emotions to reality: He gives examples that make it emotionally clear that it already is in our interest to follow the numbers (‘hot water need not *necessarily* burn you, but you correctly do not count on this. Getting burned is bad’) and forces one to contrast this realisation with examples where common intuition/behaviour doesn’t follow the numbers (‘you do not *necessarily* loose money in a lottery, but you are mistaken to count on this. Loosing money is bad’).