Omnicron probably milder than Delta (~50%) so baseline IFR likely ~0.3% unless hospitals overload, lower for vaccinated or reinfected.
Protection against hospitalization is probably something like 80%, with likely additional protection above that against severe disease, and then even more protection against death.
From some quick googling vaccination seems to provides about 10x reduction in IFR, so we are looking at ~ 0.03% IFR for the vaccinated, or about ~ 0.14% overall (0.6 * 0.03 + 0.4 * 0.3), and in practice perhaps lower if we factor in natural immunity, so getting close to the ~0.1% IFR of seasonal flu (although the latter does have a lower vaccination rate).
Omnicron of course is still higher overall impact, due to the higher case loads. But overall this seems encouraging in directionality.
The 1918 H1N1 spanish flu variant had an initial IFR in the estimated 5% to 10% range, and killed estimated 10x more people than covid has so far, but it’s modern seasonal derivatives are far less deadly.
From some quick googling vaccination seems to provides about 10x reduction in IFR, so we are looking at ~ 0.03% IFR for the vaccinated, or about ~ 0.14% overall (0.6 * 0.03 + 0.4 * 0.3), and in practice perhaps lower if we factor in natural immunity, so getting close to the ~0.1% IFR of seasonal flu (although the latter does have a lower vaccination rate).
Omnicron of course is still higher overall impact, due to the higher case loads. But overall this seems encouraging in directionality.
The 1918 H1N1 spanish flu variant had an initial IFR in the estimated 5% to 10% range, and killed estimated 10x more people than covid has so far, but it’s modern seasonal derivatives are far less deadly.