Let’s step through the B case. I only need to track probability of TS, because probability of PP is 1 minus that. The RD turns into .9/3 = 9/30ths, the R turns into 6/30ths, and the FS turns into 3/30ths. Add those together and you get 9+6+3=18, and 18⁄30 simplifies to 9/15ths.
What about the A case? Here the underlying probabilities are 1, .6, and 0, so 10⁄30, 6⁄30, and 0⁄30. 16⁄30 simplifies to 8/15ths.
Thank you for this article. Can you please guide me on how did you simplify and compute the probability of A & B in the final step.
That is, where did 8⁄15 and 9⁄15 come from?
Let’s step through the B case. I only need to track probability of TS, because probability of PP is 1 minus that. The RD turns into .9/3 = 9/30ths, the R turns into 6/30ths, and the FS turns into 3/30ths. Add those together and you get 9+6+3=18, and 18⁄30 simplifies to 9/15ths.
What about the A case? Here the underlying probabilities are 1, .6, and 0, so 10⁄30, 6⁄30, and 0⁄30. 16⁄30 simplifies to 8/15ths.