Yes, we’re both guessing about superintelligences. Because we are both cognitively bounded. But it is a better guess that superintelligences themselves don’t have to guess because they are not congitvely bounded.
Knowing why has greater predictive power because it allows you to handle counterfactuals better.
That’s a guess. As a cognitively-bounded agent, you are guessing. A superintelligence doesn’t have to guess. Superintelligence changes the game.
Knowing why some entity avoids some thing has more predictive power.
As opposed to all of those empirically-testable statements about idealized superintelligences
In what way?
Yes, we’re both guessing about superintelligences. Because we are both cognitively bounded. But it is a better guess that superintelligences themselves don’t have to guess because they are not congitvely bounded.
Knowing why has greater predictive power because it allows you to handle counterfactuals better.