If, unlike most lesswrong stalwarts, you (tenatively) believe likeme that posthuman superintelligence will most likely be our recursively self-editing biological descendants rather than the outcome of an nonbiological Intelligence Explosion or paperclippers, then some version of the Convergence Thesis is more credible.
Actually, I have no opinion on convergence vs orthogonality. There are way too many unknowns still too even enumerate possibilities, let alone assign probabilities.Personally, I think that we are in for many more surprises before trans human intelligence is close to being more than a dream or a nightmare. One ought to spend more time analyzing, synthesizing and otherwise modeling cognitive processes than worrying about where it might ultimately lead.This is not the prevailing wisdom on this site, given Eliezer’s strong views on the matter.
Actually, I have no opinion on convergence vs orthogonality. There are way too many unknowns still too even enumerate possibilities, let alone assign probabilities.Personally, I think that we are in for many more surprises before trans human intelligence is close to being more than a dream or a nightmare. One ought to spend more time analyzing, synthesizing and otherwise modeling cognitive processes than worrying about where it might ultimately lead.This is not the prevailing wisdom on this site, given Eliezer’s strong views on the matter.