Don’t forget https://www.gwern.net/Complexity-vs-AI which deals with hippke’s argument more generally. We could also point out that scaling is not itself fixed as constant factors & exponents both improve over time, see the various experience curves & algorithmic progress datasets. (To paraphrase Eliezer, the IQ necessary to destroy the world drops by 10% after every doubling of cumulative research effort.)
Don’t forget https://www.gwern.net/Complexity-vs-AI which deals with hippke’s argument more generally. We could also point out that scaling is not itself fixed as constant factors & exponents both improve over time, see the various experience curves & algorithmic progress datasets. (To paraphrase Eliezer, the IQ necessary to destroy the world drops by 10% after every doubling of cumulative research effort.)