Re: specific claims to falsify, I generally buy the argument.
If I had to pick out specific aspects which seem weaker, I think they would mostly be related to our confusion around agent foundations. It isn’t trivially obvious to me that the way we describe “intelligence” or “goals” within the instrumental convergence argument is a good match for the way current systems operate (though it seems close enough, and we shouldn’t expect to be wrong in a way that makes the situation better).
Re: specific claims to falsify, I generally buy the argument.
If I had to pick out specific aspects which seem weaker, I think they would mostly be related to our confusion around agent foundations. It isn’t trivially obvious to me that the way we describe “intelligence” or “goals” within the instrumental convergence argument is a good match for the way current systems operate (though it seems close enough, and we shouldn’t expect to be wrong in a way that makes the situation better).