I don’t believe that you actually have any intention of “reducing existential risk”. Or rather, if you do, you don’t seem to be placing much focus on it.
But the correct response to uncertainty is not half-speed
This statement demonstrates a really a poor understanding of basic (random) processes and analogies. You are absolutely right that a person driving in a car that has decided to drive to a certain distance before turning around should not let uncertainty of direction lead to a reduction of speed. You are absolutely wrong in suggesting that the analogy has any place here.
The conclusion works in the car scenario because the driver cannot take multiple options simultaneously. If he could, say by going at half speed in both directions, that would almost certainly be the best option. CFAR can go in at least nine direction at once if it want to.
That’s not the only point I take issue with, but your statement is so poorly grounded and adamant that I don’t think it would be worthwhile to poke at it piecemeal. If you think I’m wrong, you can start by telling us the model (or models) within which your mission statement helps resolve existential risk.
I don’t believe that you actually have any intention of “reducing existential risk”. Or rather, if you do, you don’t seem to be placing much focus on it.
This statement demonstrates a really a poor understanding of basic (random) processes and analogies. You are absolutely right that a person driving in a car that has decided to drive to a certain distance before turning around should not let uncertainty of direction lead to a reduction of speed. You are absolutely wrong in suggesting that the analogy has any place here.
The conclusion works in the car scenario because the driver cannot take multiple options simultaneously. If he could, say by going at half speed in both directions, that would almost certainly be the best option. CFAR can go in at least nine direction at once if it want to.
In fact, there’s a math behind this.
That’s not the only point I take issue with, but your statement is so poorly grounded and adamant that I don’t think it would be worthwhile to poke at it piecemeal. If you think I’m wrong, you can start by telling us the model (or models) within which your mission statement helps resolve existential risk.