AINC: “What’s Beauty credence for Heads when she wakes on Wednesday and doesn’t remember any of her awakenings on Monday/Tuesday?”
If she has no reason to think this is not one of her awakenings on Monday/Tuesday, then her credence is the same as it would have been then: 1⁄2 if she is a halfer, and 1⁄3 if she is a thirder.
AINC: “If it’s 1⁄2 what is the reason for the change from 1/3?”
The only way it could change from 1⁄3 to 1⁄2, is if she is a thirder and you tell her that it is Wednesday. And the reason it changes is that you changes the state of her information, not because anything about the coin itself has changed.
But if you think her credence should be based on the actual day, even when you didn’t tell her that is was Wednesday, then you have told an implicit lie. You are asking her to formulate a credence based on Monday/Tuesday, but expecting her answer to be consistent with Wednesday.
AINC: The point of the Wednesday question is to highlight, that, what you mean by “credence”, isn’t actually a probability estimate that the coin is Heads.
And the point of my answer, is that it is actually a conditional probability based on an unusual state of information.
AINC: “What’s Beauty credence for Heads when she wakes on Wednesday and doesn’t remember any of her awakenings on Monday/Tuesday?”
If she has no reason to think this is not one of her awakenings on Monday/Tuesday, then her credence is the same as it would have been then: 1⁄2 if she is a halfer, and 1⁄3 if she is a thirder.
AINC: “If it’s 1⁄2 what is the reason for the change from 1/3?”
The only way it could change from 1⁄3 to 1⁄2, is if she is a thirder and you tell her that it is Wednesday. And the reason it changes is that you changes the state of her information, not because anything about the coin itself has changed.
But if you think her credence should be based on the actual day, even when you didn’t tell her that is was Wednesday, then you have told an implicit lie. You are asking her to formulate a credence based on Monday/Tuesday, but expecting her answer to be consistent with Wednesday.
AINC: The point of the Wednesday question is to highlight, that, what you mean by “credence”, isn’t actually a probability estimate that the coin is Heads.
And the point of my answer, is that it is actually a conditional probability based on an unusual state of information.