If it’s the right answer in reality, then it’s the right answer in a hypothetical. People use their actual cognitive faculties for pondering hypotheticals, not imaginary ones.
This sounds like something that could be tested in a real experiment. We don’t have surplus millions floating around to give away, but surely there has to be a way to arrange so that the subjects either believe it’s just a hypothetical offer as apposed to a real proposition.
They may do, but they are still missing many of the physical reactions one might have to genuinely being offered large sums of money—excitement, adrenalin etc—and these are bound to have some effect on people’s decision making processes.
Perhaps a way around this would be to conduct several thought experiments with a subject in one sitting, and tell them beforehand that ‘one of the offers in these thought experiments is real and you will receive what you choose—although you will not know which one until the end of the experiment’.
This would be a good way to induce their visceral reactions to the situation, and of course, disappointingly perhaps, a more modest-sum-involving thought experiment at the end could provide them with their dividend.
Also worth noting: Deal or No Deal (UK version) demonstrates the variety of reactions and strategies people have to this sort of proposition. The US version is just silly though :)
If it’s the right answer in reality, then it’s the right answer in a hypothetical. People use their actual cognitive faculties for pondering hypotheticals, not imaginary ones.
This sounds like something that could be tested in a real experiment. We don’t have surplus millions floating around to give away, but surely there has to be a way to arrange so that the subjects either believe it’s just a hypothetical offer as apposed to a real proposition.
They may do, but they are still missing many of the physical reactions one might have to genuinely being offered large sums of money—excitement, adrenalin etc—and these are bound to have some effect on people’s decision making processes.
Perhaps a way around this would be to conduct several thought experiments with a subject in one sitting, and tell them beforehand that ‘one of the offers in these thought experiments is real and you will receive what you choose—although you will not know which one until the end of the experiment’.
This would be a good way to induce their visceral reactions to the situation, and of course, disappointingly perhaps, a more modest-sum-involving thought experiment at the end could provide them with their dividend.
Also worth noting: Deal or No Deal (UK version) demonstrates the variety of reactions and strategies people have to this sort of proposition. The US version is just silly though :)