It’s possible but doesn’t seem very likely, since given the choice between $1M outright or $500 outright, those same people would almost certainly take the $1M.
I think a more likely explanation is that they conceptualize the problem as having to choose between “probably getting $0” and “certainly getting $500″.
Of course that’s it. $500 is a lot to pay for a lottery ticket, even one with as high a chance of winning as this. Change it to a certain $20 and a 15% chance of $40,000, and I bet (heh) that many more people will take the chance then.
It’s possible but doesn’t seem very likely, since given the choice between $1M outright or $500 outright, those same people would almost certainly take the $1M.
I think a more likely explanation is that they conceptualize the problem as having to choose between “probably getting $0” and “certainly getting $500″.
Of course that’s it. $500 is a lot to pay for a lottery ticket, even one with as high a chance of winning as this. Change it to a certain $20 and a 15% chance of $40,000, and I bet (heh) that many more people will take the chance then.
Alicorn can still rescue her justification by saying that winning a lot of money by luck can ruin your life :-)