I agree with this, which is why I said “worse off in expected utility” at the beginning of the thread. But I think you need “would not be able to predict ahead of time” in a fairly strong sense, namely that they would not be able to predict it even if they knew all the details of how the FAI worked. Otherwise they’d want to adopt the conditional strategy “learn more about the FAI design, and try to shut it down if I learn that I will get the short end of the stick”. It seems like the easiest way to accomplish this is to design the FAI to explicitly not make certain people worse off, rather than depend on that happening as a likely side effect of other design choices.
I agree with this, which is why I said “worse off in expected utility” at the beginning of the thread. But I think you need “would not be able to predict ahead of time” in a fairly strong sense, namely that they would not be able to predict it even if they knew all the details of how the FAI worked. Otherwise they’d want to adopt the conditional strategy “learn more about the FAI design, and try to shut it down if I learn that I will get the short end of the stick”. It seems like the easiest way to accomplish this is to design the FAI to explicitly not make certain people worse off, rather than depend on that happening as a likely side effect of other design choices.