Thanks, that’s very helpful context. In principle, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the specific numbers of a single poll, since those results depend too much on specific wording etc. But the trend in this poll is consistent enough over all questions that I’d be surprised if the questions could be massaged to get the opposite results, let alone ones 10x in favor of the accelerationist side.
(That said, I didn’t like the long multi-paragraph questions further down in the poll. I felt like many were phrased to favor the cautiousness side somewhat, which biases the corresponding answers. Fortunately there were also plenty of short questions without this problem.)
Thanks, that’s very helpful context. In principle, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the specific numbers of a single poll, since those results depend too much on specific wording etc. But the trend in this poll is consistent enough over all questions that I’d be surprised if the questions could be massaged to get the opposite results, let alone ones 10x in favor of the accelerationist side.
I believe this has been replicated consistently across many polls. For the results to change, reality (in the sense of popular opinion) likely has to change, rather than polling techniques.
On the other hand, popular opinion changing isn’t that unlikely, as it’s not exactly something that either voters or the elites have thought much about, and (fortunately) this has not yet hewn along partisan lines.
One very common pattern is, most people oppose a technology when it’s new and unfamiliar, then later once it’s been established for a little while and doesn’t seem so strange most people think it’s great.
Thanks, that’s very helpful context. In principle, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the specific numbers of a single poll, since those results depend too much on specific wording etc. But the trend in this poll is consistent enough over all questions that I’d be surprised if the questions could be massaged to get the opposite results, let alone ones 10x in favor of the accelerationist side.
(That said, I didn’t like the long multi-paragraph questions further down in the poll. I felt like many were phrased to favor the cautiousness side somewhat, which biases the corresponding answers. Fortunately there were also plenty of short questions without this problem.)
I believe this has been replicated consistently across many polls. For the results to change, reality (in the sense of popular opinion) likely has to change, rather than polling techniques.
On the other hand, popular opinion changing isn’t that unlikely, as it’s not exactly something that either voters or the elites have thought much about, and (fortunately) this has not yet hewn along partisan lines.
One very common pattern is, most people oppose a technology when it’s new and unfamiliar, then later once it’s been established for a little while and doesn’t seem so strange most people think it’s great.
Yeah, I’m afraid of this happening with AI even as the danger becomes clearer. It’s one reason we’re in a really important window for setting policy.