Is the slow forward march of copyright terms the optimal response to the massive changes in information technology we’ve seen over the past several centuries?
Of course not! Even without the detailed analysis and assorted variables needed to figure out anything like an optimal term, economics tells us this can’t actually help much in increasing idea, tech, patent, or creative work output. Market size for copies of a given work changes over time (speed and direction vary), but to a first approximation assume you can get away with holding it steady. Apply a 7% discount rate to the value of future returns and by year 20 you’ve gotten roughly 75% of all the value you’ll ever extract. By year 50 you’re over 95%.
Even without copyright, Disney must still own the trademark rights to use Mickey in many ways, so that part is really about copyright. Honestly outside of an occasional TV special I can’t remember the last time there was an actual new creative work about Mickey at all. Who can claim that copyright was still incentivizing anything at all? What court would believe it?
Patents are trickier, because they start at date of filing, and in some industries it can take most of the patent term just to bring it to market, leaving only a few years to benefit from the protection. Something as simple as a lawsuit from a competitor, or any form of opposition to building a plant, or a hiccup in raising funds, could create enough delay to wipe out a significant chunk of a patent’s value, in a way that wasn’t really true in a century ago. It makes little sense to me to have the same patent durations across software, automotive, energy, aviation, and pharmaceutical inventions/discoveries.
It’s fairly rare for a patent to be granted and only have a few years left, and if it does that’s typically because of patent owner delays rather than uspto delays. The US law specifically gives you extra time post grant based on uspto delays. Also US patent holders have access to pre-issue, post-publication damages for cases where infringers had actual notice of the published patent application.
But even given that, I am 100% in agreement that patent terms should be extended.
Yes, agreed, and just to be clear I’m not talking about delays in granting a patent, I’m talking about delays in how long it takes to bring a technology to market and generate a return once a patent has been filed and/or granted.
Also, I’m not actually sure I’m 100% behind extending patent terms. I probably am. I do think they should be longer than copyright terms, though.
Of course not! Even without the detailed analysis and assorted variables needed to figure out anything like an optimal term, economics tells us this can’t actually help much in increasing idea, tech, patent, or creative work output. Market size for copies of a given work changes over time (speed and direction vary), but to a first approximation assume you can get away with holding it steady. Apply a 7% discount rate to the value of future returns and by year 20 you’ve gotten roughly 75% of all the value you’ll ever extract. By year 50 you’re over 95%.
Even without copyright, Disney must still own the trademark rights to use Mickey in many ways, so that part is really about copyright. Honestly outside of an occasional TV special I can’t remember the last time there was an actual new creative work about Mickey at all. Who can claim that copyright was still incentivizing anything at all? What court would believe it?
Patents are trickier, because they start at date of filing, and in some industries it can take most of the patent term just to bring it to market, leaving only a few years to benefit from the protection. Something as simple as a lawsuit from a competitor, or any form of opposition to building a plant, or a hiccup in raising funds, could create enough delay to wipe out a significant chunk of a patent’s value, in a way that wasn’t really true in a century ago. It makes little sense to me to have the same patent durations across software, automotive, energy, aviation, and pharmaceutical inventions/discoveries.
It’s fairly rare for a patent to be granted and only have a few years left, and if it does that’s typically because of patent owner delays rather than uspto delays. The US law specifically gives you extra time post grant based on uspto delays. Also US patent holders have access to pre-issue, post-publication damages for cases where infringers had actual notice of the published patent application.
But even given that, I am 100% in agreement that patent terms should be extended.
Yes, agreed, and just to be clear I’m not talking about delays in granting a patent, I’m talking about delays in how long it takes to bring a technology to market and generate a return once a patent has been filed and/or granted.
Also, I’m not actually sure I’m 100% behind extending patent terms. I probably am. I do think they should be longer than copyright terms, though.