Interesting idea. I think that rather than a Brier score or log-score (which just indicates how accurate the prosecutor was) it would be better to use something that also indicates the extent to which they specifically over-stated charges. Maybe just something like “On average, the total sentence for defendants charged by this prosecutor was 4.7% of the total of all charges made”, though it seems like there would be all sorts of difficulties actually doing that in a way that makes sense.
I think that accuracy is better for a prosecutor to optimize then not overstating the likelihood.
If I’m charged with a crime and the prosecutor tells me that the real chance of getting put into jail is 60% when it’s actually 90% then I’m harmed by having more hopes then reasonable about being able to stay out of jail.
Besides the main number, all the history should however be available so that a defense lawyer could also calculate whether a prosecutor with a bad Briers score under or overcharges.
In addition to accuracy being useful to optimize for, I expect it to be easier to find a political consensus around “prosecutor should be accurate when making charges” as that’s desirable for both the right and left.
I think you want to give prosecutors incentives both to be accurate and not to overstate, and also to give people accused of crimes some indication of what they’re actually likely to end up with if they go to trial.
You might be right that doing something that looks “bidirectional” might be easier politically.
Interesting idea. I think that rather than a Brier score or log-score (which just indicates how accurate the prosecutor was) it would be better to use something that also indicates the extent to which they specifically over-stated charges. Maybe just something like “On average, the total sentence for defendants charged by this prosecutor was 4.7% of the total of all charges made”, though it seems like there would be all sorts of difficulties actually doing that in a way that makes sense.
I think that accuracy is better for a prosecutor to optimize then not overstating the likelihood.
If I’m charged with a crime and the prosecutor tells me that the real chance of getting put into jail is 60% when it’s actually 90% then I’m harmed by having more hopes then reasonable about being able to stay out of jail.
Besides the main number, all the history should however be available so that a defense lawyer could also calculate whether a prosecutor with a bad Briers score under or overcharges.
In addition to accuracy being useful to optimize for, I expect it to be easier to find a political consensus around “prosecutor should be accurate when making charges” as that’s desirable for both the right and left.
I think you want to give prosecutors incentives both to be accurate and not to overstate, and also to give people accused of crimes some indication of what they’re actually likely to end up with if they go to trial.
You might be right that doing something that looks “bidirectional” might be easier politically.