There are many things to consider, many of them have high uncertainty; also people are different.
The obvious short-term consequence is that every additional child spends more of your resources and time. But even here the utilitarian ethical consequences depend on what would be the realistic alternative. For example, if your contribution mostly consists of sending 10% of your income to EA causes… then even the short-term the impact of another child might be close to zero, if you keep the same job and keep sending the same 10%. (That would assume that the money to cover the costs of the child come from some other part of your budget.)
On the other hand, if your altruistic financial contributions are more like “I only spend on myself and my family as little as I need, and send everything else to EA causes”, then every cent spent on the child is taken directly from that.
How much will you spend on the child? That probably depends a lot on the child’s health. A healthy baby that is breastfed and inherits stuff from older siblings… only needs diapers? A sick baby… sky is the limit.
Children consume resources and contribute to pollution, and when they become adults they also produce useful stuff. The impact of AI on all of this is also difficult to predict. Will AI cause a revolution in education? Then maybe you won’t have to spend a ton of money on university. Will AI cause unemployment? Then maybe humans won’t have jobs anymore, and thus your children’s potential productivity will be irrelevant. Depending on when exactly the AI comes, your child might be a part of the revolution.
Second-order effects… will having more children make you happier about your life, and therefore maybe more productive or more altruistic? Will your personal example (including the decisions you made about your family) inspire other people to also become effective altruists? Again, difficult to predict. Sometimes people are inspired by their family needs to take a better-paying job; so even your future income is not necessarily fixed. Your children may or may not become effective altruists themselves.
There are many things to consider, many of them have high uncertainty; also people are different.
The obvious short-term consequence is that every additional child spends more of your resources and time. But even here the utilitarian ethical consequences depend on what would be the realistic alternative. For example, if your contribution mostly consists of sending 10% of your income to EA causes… then even the short-term the impact of another child might be close to zero, if you keep the same job and keep sending the same 10%. (That would assume that the money to cover the costs of the child come from some other part of your budget.)
On the other hand, if your altruistic financial contributions are more like “I only spend on myself and my family as little as I need, and send everything else to EA causes”, then every cent spent on the child is taken directly from that.
How much will you spend on the child? That probably depends a lot on the child’s health. A healthy baby that is breastfed and inherits stuff from older siblings… only needs diapers? A sick baby… sky is the limit.
Children consume resources and contribute to pollution, and when they become adults they also produce useful stuff. The impact of AI on all of this is also difficult to predict. Will AI cause a revolution in education? Then maybe you won’t have to spend a ton of money on university. Will AI cause unemployment? Then maybe humans won’t have jobs anymore, and thus your children’s potential productivity will be irrelevant. Depending on when exactly the AI comes, your child might be a part of the revolution.
Second-order effects… will having more children make you happier about your life, and therefore maybe more productive or more altruistic? Will your personal example (including the decisions you made about your family) inspire other people to also become effective altruists? Again, difficult to predict. Sometimes people are inspired by their family needs to take a better-paying job; so even your future income is not necessarily fixed. Your children may or may not become effective altruists themselves.
IMHO, too much uncertainty here.