Simple version: You provide your own predictions, and state your credence. Later you say whether you were right or wrong. The app displays statistics of your calibration.
This is simple in essence, but there will be many design decisions, and many little details that can make the UI better. For example, I guess you should choose the credence from, say, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, and 99%, instead of typing your own value, because this way it will be easier to make statistics. Also, choosing one option is easier than typing two digits, although most of the work will be typing the questions. It should be possible to edit the text later (noticing a typo too late would drive me crazy). The app should also remember the date each question was entered, so it can give you statistics like: how well calibrated you are in the last 30 days (compared with the previous 30 days).
Maybe the data should be stored online, so you can edit them both from the mobile and from the PC. Although, I would prefer if the application works offline, too. These are two contradictory demands, so you have to find a solution. Perhaps each user should choose in settings whether their data should be kept in the mobile or on the web? And perhaps allow to change this setting later, and the data will be copied? Or maybe even keeping only the recent data in the mobile, and the full archive online? There are many decisions here.
A nice function would be to save some work typing repeated questions. For example, if I want to make a bet every morning “will I exercise today?”, there should be an option to repeat one of the recent questions with current date. (By the way, if you always display the date along the question, you can write things like “today” or “this month” without having to always write the specific date.)
A more advanced version (don’t do this as the first version; remember the planning fallacy!) would allow some kind of “multiplayer”. You could add friends, and offer to share some bets with your friends. Anyone can create a question and offer it to other people; they can accept (by writing their credence) or reject it. Then there would be a summary comparing the members of the group.
Again, here are many design choices and UI improvements. How specifically will you add friends? Will you also have groups of friends, so you share some questions only with some groups? Who can answer the multiplayer question: the person who wrote it, anyone, or the person who wrote it chooses one of the former options?
Integrate the whole thing with Facebook, especially the multiplayer version? That could make the app wildly popular! (But I heard that the Facebook API is less than friendly.)
A personal prediction book?
Simple version: You provide your own predictions, and state your credence. Later you say whether you were right or wrong. The app displays statistics of your calibration.
This is simple in essence, but there will be many design decisions, and many little details that can make the UI better. For example, I guess you should choose the credence from, say, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, and 99%, instead of typing your own value, because this way it will be easier to make statistics. Also, choosing one option is easier than typing two digits, although most of the work will be typing the questions. It should be possible to edit the text later (noticing a typo too late would drive me crazy). The app should also remember the date each question was entered, so it can give you statistics like: how well calibrated you are in the last 30 days (compared with the previous 30 days).
Maybe the data should be stored online, so you can edit them both from the mobile and from the PC. Although, I would prefer if the application works offline, too. These are two contradictory demands, so you have to find a solution. Perhaps each user should choose in settings whether their data should be kept in the mobile or on the web? And perhaps allow to change this setting later, and the data will be copied? Or maybe even keeping only the recent data in the mobile, and the full archive online? There are many decisions here.
A nice function would be to save some work typing repeated questions. For example, if I want to make a bet every morning “will I exercise today?”, there should be an option to repeat one of the recent questions with current date. (By the way, if you always display the date along the question, you can write things like “today” or “this month” without having to always write the specific date.)
A more advanced version (don’t do this as the first version; remember the planning fallacy!) would allow some kind of “multiplayer”. You could add friends, and offer to share some bets with your friends. Anyone can create a question and offer it to other people; they can accept (by writing their credence) or reject it. Then there would be a summary comparing the members of the group.
Again, here are many design choices and UI improvements. How specifically will you add friends? Will you also have groups of friends, so you share some questions only with some groups? Who can answer the multiplayer question: the person who wrote it, anyone, or the person who wrote it chooses one of the former options?
Integrate the whole thing with Facebook, especially the multiplayer version? That could make the app wildly popular! (But I heard that the Facebook API is less than friendly.)