So, suppose I rig up a machine with the following behaviour. It “flips a coin” (actually, in case it matters, exploiting some source of quantum randomness so that heads and tails have more or less exactly equal quantum measure). If it comes up heads, it arranges that in ten years’ time you will be very decisively killed.
If we take “Pr(L)=1” (in that comment’s notation) seriously then it follows that Pr(tails)=1 too. But if there are 100 of you using these machines, then about 50 are going to see heads; and if you are confident of getting tails—in fact, if your estimate of Pr(tails) is substantially bigger than 1⁄2 -- you’re liable to get money-pumped.
One possible conclusion: Pr(L)=1 is the wrong way to think about quantum immortality if you believe in it.
Another: the situation I described isn’t really possible, because the machine can’t make it certain that you will die in 10 years, and the correct conclusion is simply that if it comes up heads then the universe will find some way to keep you alive despite whatever it does.
But note that that objection applies just as well to the original scenario. Any disaster that you can survive with the help of an extra $10M, you can probably survive without the $10M but with a lot of luck. Or without the $10M from the lottery but with $10M that unexpectedly reaches you by other means.
Your last paragraph is leading me to consider an alternative scenario: There are two ways to survive the disaster, either pleasantly by having enough money (via winning the lottery) or unpleasantly (such as by having to amputate most of your limbs to reduce your bodymass to have enough delta-vee). I’m currently trying to use Venn-like overlapping categories to see if I can figure out any “If X then Y” conclusions. The basic parameters of the setting seem to rule out all but five combinations (using ! to mean ‘not’):
At this very moment, I’m trying to figure out what happens if quantum immortality means the ‘dead’ line doesn’t exist...
… But I’m as likely as not to miss some consequence of this. Anyone care to take a shot at how to set things up so that any Bayesian calculations on the matter have at least a shot at reflecting reality?
So, suppose I rig up a machine with the following behaviour. It “flips a coin” (actually, in case it matters, exploiting some source of quantum randomness so that heads and tails have more or less exactly equal quantum measure). If it comes up heads, it arranges that in ten years’ time you will be very decisively killed.
If we take “Pr(L)=1” (in that comment’s notation) seriously then it follows that Pr(tails)=1 too. But if there are 100 of you using these machines, then about 50 are going to see heads; and if you are confident of getting tails—in fact, if your estimate of Pr(tails) is substantially bigger than 1⁄2 -- you’re liable to get money-pumped.
One possible conclusion: Pr(L)=1 is the wrong way to think about quantum immortality if you believe in it.
Another: the situation I described isn’t really possible, because the machine can’t make it certain that you will die in 10 years, and the correct conclusion is simply that if it comes up heads then the universe will find some way to keep you alive despite whatever it does.
But note that that objection applies just as well to the original scenario. Any disaster that you can survive with the help of an extra $10M, you can probably survive without the $10M but with a lot of luck. Or without the $10M from the lottery but with $10M that unexpectedly reaches you by other means.
Your last paragraph is leading me to consider an alternative scenario: There are two ways to survive the disaster, either pleasantly by having enough money (via winning the lottery) or unpleasantly (such as by having to amputate most of your limbs to reduce your bodymass to have enough delta-vee). I’m currently trying to use Venn-like overlapping categories to see if I can figure out any “If X then Y” conclusions. The basic parameters of the setting seem to rule out all but five combinations (using ! to mean ‘not’):
WinLotto, !Disaster, !Amputee, Live: All Good WinLotto, Disaster, !Amputee, Live: Buy survival !WinLotto, !Disaster, !Amputee, Live: Nothing happens !WinLotto, Disaster, Amputee, Live: Unpleasant survival !WinLotto, Disaster, !Amputee, !Live: Dead.
At this very moment, I’m trying to figure out what happens if quantum immortality means the ‘dead’ line doesn’t exist...
… But I’m as likely as not to miss some consequence of this. Anyone care to take a shot at how to set things up so that any Bayesian calculations on the matter have at least a shot at reflecting reality?