I would agree with Karo, I think. I’m actually surprised by how accurate this list of predictions is; it’s not at 50% but I’m not sure why we would expect it to be with predictions this specific. (I’m not saying he was epistemically justified, just that he’s more accurate than I would have expected).
Following up on Eliezer’s point, it seems like the core of his claims are:
1) computers will become smaller and people will have access to them basically 24⁄7. If you remember that even my cell phone, which is a total piece of crap and cost $10, would look like a computer to someone from 1999, this seems fairly accurate.
2) Keyboards will cease to be the primary method of interaction with computers. We’re getting there—slowly—between improved voice recognition and the growth of tablet PCs. But we’re not there yet. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this were true by 2020 (wouldn’t be surprised if it weren’t, either. I don’t know how far off we are from speech recognition good enough that people can assume it will work).
3) People will start using computers for things that in 1999 had to be done in hard copy. This is starting to happen, but we’re not there yet. Again, wouldn’t surprise me either way in 2020.
4) People will be able to use computers as their primary means of interaction with the world. Some basement-dwelling geeks like myself aside, not quite true. People like dealing with other people. I think this is the least likely to be true ten years from now.
I would agree with Karo, I think. I’m actually surprised by how accurate this list of predictions is; it’s not at 50% but I’m not sure why we would expect it to be with predictions this specific. (I’m not saying he was epistemically justified, just that he’s more accurate than I would have expected).
Following up on Eliezer’s point, it seems like the core of his claims are: 1) computers will become smaller and people will have access to them basically 24⁄7. If you remember that even my cell phone, which is a total piece of crap and cost $10, would look like a computer to someone from 1999, this seems fairly accurate. 2) Keyboards will cease to be the primary method of interaction with computers. We’re getting there—slowly—between improved voice recognition and the growth of tablet PCs. But we’re not there yet. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this were true by 2020 (wouldn’t be surprised if it weren’t, either. I don’t know how far off we are from speech recognition good enough that people can assume it will work). 3) People will start using computers for things that in 1999 had to be done in hard copy. This is starting to happen, but we’re not there yet. Again, wouldn’t surprise me either way in 2020. 4) People will be able to use computers as their primary means of interaction with the world. Some basement-dwelling geeks like myself aside, not quite true. People like dealing with other people. I think this is the least likely to be true ten years from now.