In order to score forecasts, what we really want is:
probabilities assigned to each item
some other forecast of the same things to compare with.
Without these we are stuck trying to guess what probability he had in mind and what probabilities others would have assigned back then to these same items.
In order to score forecasts, what we really want is:
Without these we are stuck trying to guess what probability he had in mind and what probabilities others would have assigned back then to these same items.probabilities assigned to each item
some other forecast of the same things to compare with.