To investigate this question, let’s examine Alphabet Inc’s share price around the time AlphaGo defeated world Go champion Lee Sedol in March 2016.
They had already announced beating Fan Hui a few months earlier. So it was already known months ahead of time that they were at least near world class. Sure, it was an open question whether they would actually beat the very best, but it shouldn’t have been shocking either way, people were betting on both sides. (I bet in favor.)
They had already announced beating Fan Hui a few months earlier. So it was already known months ahead of time that they were at least near world class. Sure, it was an open question whether they would actually beat the very best, but it shouldn’t have been shocking either way, people were betting on both sides. (I bet in favor.)
Furthermore, despite all the claims about Go falling to AIs a decade faster than anticipated, AlphaGo wasn’t actually that big a jump above the trend-line for Go AI Elo. (See: https://www.milesbrundage.com/blog-posts/alphago-and-ai-progress )
So even if the win was a shock to many individuals, if the market as a whole had been paying attention, it shouldn’t have been too much of an update.
All that said, I do think it’s quite plausible that the market is undervaluing AI.