More specifically what stops a company like Nio who has a Bay Area campus from hiring top tier researchers and having them train hundreds of researchers in China? This isn’t even theft. If the key insights behind the latest models can fit in a persons memory this will work.
Also China has more manufacturing capacity and workers to build conpute the limit is tools
Yes also can they rent time at datacenters in countries that can buy GPUs?
Your singularity model puts a lot of weight on just pure intelligence, that once you get to RSI the game soon ends. Note that you made an assumption: the utility multiplier of ASI is very high. For example if you have 1000 robots, an AGI would have a utility multiplier of about 1, the robots can accomplish on average what humans workers working 24⁄7 without fatigue could accomplish.
You probably assume that an ASI could find a gigantic multiplier, 100x or more. So the robots do 100x as much work with the same hardware.
This could be untrue. What if the multiplier is just 2? Then you can’t fake having more robots and starting industrial capacity is a huge factor for your relative power later in the Singularity, since you need 2.5 years or so for doubling, so if you start with 100x the capacity you can even be late to ASI or use a slightly worse ASI with 1.8 times utility multiplier.
More specifically what stops a company like Nio who has a Bay Area campus from hiring top tier researchers and having them train hundreds of researchers in China? This isn’t even theft. If the key insights behind the latest models can fit in a persons memory this will work.
Also China has more manufacturing capacity and workers to build conpute the limit is tools
Yes also can they rent time at datacenters in countries that can buy GPUs?
Your singularity model puts a lot of weight on just pure intelligence, that once you get to RSI the game soon ends. Note that you made an assumption: the utility multiplier of ASI is very high. For example if you have 1000 robots, an AGI would have a utility multiplier of about 1, the robots can accomplish on average what humans workers working 24⁄7 without fatigue could accomplish.
You probably assume that an ASI could find a gigantic multiplier, 100x or more. So the robots do 100x as much work with the same hardware.
This could be untrue. What if the multiplier is just 2? Then you can’t fake having more robots and starting industrial capacity is a huge factor for your relative power later in the Singularity, since you need 2.5 years or so for doubling, so if you start with 100x the capacity you can even be late to ASI or use a slightly worse ASI with 1.8 times utility multiplier.
Obviously China has a huge advantage there.