OK, maybe it does show a hot spot in Seattle. (though I’m not convinced)
But what about Florida? It seems to me that when you predict a million coronavirus cases, your method is predicting that half of them are in Florida. So you really have to look closely at the state. Surely the decline starting on March 19 does not represent the very minimal social distancing imposed on March 17.
OK, maybe it does show a hot spot in Seattle. (though I’m not convinced)
But what about Florida? It seems to me that when you predict a million coronavirus cases, your method is predicting that half of them are in Florida. So you really have to look closely at the state. Surely the decline starting on March 19 does not represent the very minimal social distancing imposed on March 17.