This is great, I particularly like the grocery delivery idea.
As I understand it the R0 variance is a big reason (the main reason?) for the flu vaccine being given to children at least in the UK—they have the potential to have a very high R0. According to this study worrying about kids infections may not be helpful for COVID-19 but this seems like the right kind of thing to consider.
If the doubling time is 2.5 days and the serial interval is 5 days then R0 should be about 4, so each serial interval can let us double twice.
If I understand this correctly I think this would mean R0=3 as1in 4 people infected by the end of 5 days was already infected at the beginning.
Edit: I think I got this last bit wrong as only 3⁄4 of the people infected at the beginning are still infectious (according to the simplified model I’m imagining) so the original value of R0=4 is correct
This is great, I particularly like the grocery delivery idea.
As I understand it the R0 variance is a big reason (the main reason?) for the flu vaccine being given to children at least in the UK—they have the potential to have a very high R0. According to this study worrying about kids infections may not be helpful for COVID-19 but this seems like the right kind of thing to consider.
If I understand this correctly I think this would mean R0=3 as1in 4 people infected by the end of 5 days was already infected at the beginning.
Edit: I think I got this last bit wrong as only 3⁄4 of the people infected at the beginning are still infectious (according to the simplified model I’m imagining) so the original value of R0=4 is correct