I don’t think the Danish numbers are comforting at all, and I believe that the tweeter is comparing apple to oranges. The latter numbers cited, which are now at 91/18941 (0.48%) versus 1794/127060 (1.41%), are the total number of admissions in patients testing positive between 22. November and 15. December. Since the 14. And 15. of December have most of the positive Omicron cases, but the Delta cases are more spread out, we should expect the number of hospitalized Omicron cases relative to Delta in this cohort to rise as the disease runs its course.
Second, the characteristics of the Omicron patients bias the data. As expected, the proportion of unvaccinated cases is much higher for Delta (23.8%) versus Omicron (8.6%). But additionally, the age distributions of cases are different, with more than double the proportion of Omicron cases in the 20-29 cohort and consequently fewer in the very young and very old cohorts.
Considering these factors, I think it’s unlikely that Omicron will turn out to be more than 20-25% less severe than Delta, which is what was found in the initial analysis.
I don’t think the Danish numbers are comforting at all, and I believe that the tweeter is comparing apple to oranges. The latter numbers cited, which are now at 91/18941 (0.48%) versus 1794/127060 (1.41%), are the total number of admissions in patients testing positive between 22. November and 15. December. Since the 14. And 15. of December have most of the positive Omicron cases, but the Delta cases are more spread out, we should expect the number of hospitalized Omicron cases relative to Delta in this cohort to rise as the disease runs its course.
Second, the characteristics of the Omicron patients bias the data. As expected, the proportion of unvaccinated cases is much higher for Delta (23.8%) versus Omicron (8.6%). But additionally, the age distributions of cases are different, with more than double the proportion of Omicron cases in the 20-29 cohort and consequently fewer in the very young and very old cohorts.
Considering these factors, I think it’s unlikely that Omicron will turn out to be more than 20-25% less severe than Delta, which is what was found in the initial analysis.
The current data from Denmark can be found here: https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-20122021-9j51.pdf The Danish CDC releases these reports daily, and they can be found at their website ssi.dk (in Danish, but it should be manageable to navigate).
I hope that you get better soon.