Right now we are in the “Custom Built” stage, during this stage, building something competitive takes an incredible investment in money and talent, so the playing field is small and it’s easier to coordiate.
As we move into the “Product” stage, that’s the most dangerous. There’s no longer huge R&D costs, so many people can enter the game. This is also when the landscape is the most competitive and players are willing to do the most to get ahead, so they’re more likely to “move fast and break things”.
Then, as we move into the “Commodity” stage, things get a bit safer again. The market usually thins out as winners emerge, and since everyone basically has the same features, we wouldn’t expect drastic shifts that create AGI. At this stage, a further question becomes
For any given technology, don’t we go first to “custom built” and then “product” and then “commodity?” If so, isn’t it guaranteed that we’ll reach AGI at “Custom built” stage first?
When we say “new technology” in Wardley Mapping we’re referring to a fundamentally new idea upon which new things can be built.
Only if AGI springs forth as soon as that new idea is created would it be in the custom built stage. It’s equally possible that AGI could come from iterating on or making the new idea repeatable/practical/cost effective that AGI could arise.
An analogy would be if we were talking about—FHT (Faster than Horse Technology). The exact moment we crossed the barrier of being faster than a horse might have been when a new technology was created, bits it’s equally possible that it would be between one model of car and another, with no fundamentally new technology just iterating on the existing technology and making the speed go up through experimentation, better understanding, or the result of being able to manufacture at higher scale.
At which stage of Wardley Evolution will we reach AGI?
Right now we are in the “Custom Built” stage, during this stage, building something competitive takes an incredible investment in money and talent, so the playing field is small and it’s easier to coordiate.
As we move into the “Product” stage, that’s the most dangerous. There’s no longer huge R&D costs, so many people can enter the game. This is also when the landscape is the most competitive and players are willing to do the most to get ahead, so they’re more likely to “move fast and break things”.
Then, as we move into the “Commodity” stage, things get a bit safer again. The market usually thins out as winners emerge, and since everyone basically has the same features, we wouldn’t expect drastic shifts that create AGI. At this stage, a further question becomes
Are the companies that win the commodity game safety conscious? Because they have a huge leg up in both influencing and monitoring the further developments of AI.
For any given technology, don’t we go first to “custom built” and then “product” and then “commodity?” If so, isn’t it guaranteed that we’ll reach AGI at “Custom built” stage first?
When we say “new technology” in Wardley Mapping we’re referring to a fundamentally new idea upon which new things can be built.
Only if AGI springs forth as soon as that new idea is created would it be in the custom built stage. It’s equally possible that AGI could come from iterating on or making the new idea repeatable/practical/cost effective that AGI could arise.
An analogy would be if we were talking about—FHT (Faster than Horse Technology). The exact moment we crossed the barrier of being faster than a horse might have been when a new technology was created, bits it’s equally possible that it would be between one model of car and another, with no fundamentally new technology just iterating on the existing technology and making the speed go up through experimentation, better understanding, or the result of being able to manufacture at higher scale.