If you think the identical processes and level of caution should be used for an emergent pandemic as for relatively small-scale long-standing viruses, you’re not doing cost/benefit analysis very well. It’s very hard for me to simultaneously believe that it’s so risky that we should all avoid travel and most leisure activities, AND that the vaccine is so unimportant that we shouldn’t accept more risks than we otherwise would.
I’ll respond to Natalie Dean’s quote, because they’re easy bullet points.
Gives people a false sense of security if efficacy is really low
Perhaps true, but efficacy would have to be ridiculously low for it to be a net loss. Which will show in early trials and uses.
Diverts resources away from other interventions (fixing testing!)
Do both!
Makes it harder to evaluate better vaccines
Only to the extent that it’s effective and very common. Which is a good outcome in itself.
See also this marginal revolution comments section, where several comments do show their work. Different conclusions, but this way of arguing for is more effective for finding the option that saves most lives in expectation.
If you think the identical processes and level of caution should be used for an emergent pandemic as for relatively small-scale long-standing viruses, you’re not doing cost/benefit analysis very well. It’s very hard for me to simultaneously believe that it’s so risky that we should all avoid travel and most leisure activities, AND that the vaccine is so unimportant that we shouldn’t accept more risks than we otherwise would.
I’ll respond to Natalie Dean’s quote, because they’re easy bullet points.
Perhaps true, but efficacy would have to be ridiculously low for it to be a net loss. Which will show in early trials and uses.
Do both!
Only to the extent that it’s effective and very common. Which is a good outcome in itself.
More than a 6-month delay would? I doubt it.
That implies that anyone trusts the process now.
Good points Dagon.
See also this marginal revolution comments section, where several comments do show their work. Different conclusions, but this way of arguing for is more effective for finding the option that saves most lives in expectation.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/09/on-vaccine-timing-from-the-comments.html