It’s worth noting that the R-squared value for a linear trend-line for 2000-2019 data has R2=0.07 so a constant prediction of 750k acres would only be marginally less accurate. (I think your excluding 2020 graph also excludes 2019 but the story doesn’t change much either way)
It looks like up until 2016 everything was fairly constant and since then 3 out of 4 years have been bad.
It’s worth noting that the R-squared value for a linear trend-line for 2000-2019 data has R2=0.07 so a constant prediction of 750k acres would only be marginally less accurate. (I think your excluding 2020 graph also excludes 2019 but the story doesn’t change much either way)
It looks like up until 2016 everything was fairly constant and since then 3 out of 4 years have been bad.
Hm, when I was making the excluding-2020 graph I was intending to include 2019 as well, but it might have been taken out accidentally.