The bigger point is that once again we have two distinct versions of ‘scientific consensus’ about what’s going on with these fires.
Perhaps it’s all my filter bubble, but what I’m hearing democrats say is that the issue is caused by a history of mismanagement combined with climate change. After all, the mismanagement hasn’t changed significantly over the last twenty years, but the fires have gotten significantly worse over the last twenty-thirty years. The people I know who have lived in California for the last fifty years have talked about how until the mid-90s, they didn’t hear about wildfires at all, and since then it’s significantly gone up. Looking at the list of twenty largest fires since 1932, ten are since 2010 and an additional seven were between 2000 and 2010. Only three were before 2000. Graphing the acres burned over time since 2000 shows a clear increase, and that remains even if you remove this year’s fires.
Obviously there’s more time for brush to accumulate, but as other comments have mentioned, the fires burning have removed some of that brush, taking away fuel, so that’s likely close to a wash, and I doubt that it could explain an increase of 3x on the trend-line.
Overall, climate change seems like a necessary cause for these fires, even if not a sufficient one. Of course, the mismanagement is also a necessary cause—and I’ve certainly seen plenty of left-leaning leaders blaming California for that—but keeping both causes in mind is important, especially when one issue is local to California and the other issue is global.
Perhaps it’s all my filter bubble, but what I’m hearing democrats say is that the issue is caused by a history of mismanagement combined with climate change. After all, the mismanagement hasn’t changed significantly over the last twenty years, but the fires have gotten significantly worse over the last twenty-thirty years. The people I know who have lived in California for the last fifty years have talked about how until the mid-90s, they didn’t hear about wildfires at all, and since then it’s significantly gone up. Looking at the list of twenty largest fires since 1932, ten are since 2010 and an additional seven were between 2000 and 2010. Only three were before 2000. Graphing the acres burned over time since 2000 shows a clear increase, and that remains even if you remove this year’s fires.
Obviously there’s more time for brush to accumulate, but as other comments have mentioned, the fires burning have removed some of that brush, taking away fuel, so that’s likely close to a wash, and I doubt that it could explain an increase of 3x on the trend-line.
Overall, climate change seems like a necessary cause for these fires, even if not a sufficient one. Of course, the mismanagement is also a necessary cause—and I’ve certainly seen plenty of left-leaning leaders blaming California for that—but keeping both causes in mind is important, especially when one issue is local to California and the other issue is global.