Scenario A has an almost 10% chance of survival; the others ~0%. To quote John Wentworth’s post, which I strongly agree with:
What I like about the Godzilla analogy is that it gives a strategic intuition which much better matches the real world. When someone claims that their elaborate clever scheme will allow us to safely summon Godzilla in order to fight Mega-Godzilla, the intuitively-obviously-correct response is “THIS DOES NOT LEAD TO RISING PROPERTY VALUES IN TOKYO”.
Scenario A has an almost 10% chance of survival; the others ~0%. To quote John Wentworth’s post, which I strongly agree with: