Also, I personally have never generated a timeline using a model; I do something like Focusing on the felt senses of which numbers feel right. This is the final step in Eliezer’s “do the math, then burn the math and go with your gut” thing.
This does not seem like the sort of process that would generate an output suitable for shared map-making (i.e. epistemics). It seems like a process designed to produce an answer optimized for your local incentives, which will of course be mostly social ones, since your S1 is going to be tracking those pretty intently.
I’m also confused by this response. I don’t mean to imply that the model-building version of the thing is bad, but I did want to contribute as a data point that I’ve never done it.
I don’t have full introspective access to what my gut is tracking but it mostly doesn’t feel to me like it’s tracking social incentives; what I’m doing is closer to an inner sim kind of thing along the lines of “how surprised would I be if 30 years passed and we were all still alive?” Of course I haven’t provided any evidence for this other than claiming it, and I’m not claiming that people should take my gut timelines very seriously, but I can still pay attention to them.
That seems substantially better than Focusing directly on the numbers. Thanks for explaining. I’m still pretty surprised if your anticipations are (a) being produced by a model that’s primarily epistemic rather than socially motivated, and (b) hard to unpack into a structured model without a lot more work than what’s required to generate them in the first place.
This does not seem like the sort of process that would generate an output suitable for shared map-making (i.e. epistemics). It seems like a process designed to produce an answer optimized for your local incentives, which will of course be mostly social ones, since your S1 is going to be tracking those pretty intently.
I’m also confused by this response. I don’t mean to imply that the model-building version of the thing is bad, but I did want to contribute as a data point that I’ve never done it.
I don’t have full introspective access to what my gut is tracking but it mostly doesn’t feel to me like it’s tracking social incentives; what I’m doing is closer to an inner sim kind of thing along the lines of “how surprised would I be if 30 years passed and we were all still alive?” Of course I haven’t provided any evidence for this other than claiming it, and I’m not claiming that people should take my gut timelines very seriously, but I can still pay attention to them.
That seems substantially better than Focusing directly on the numbers. Thanks for explaining. I’m still pretty surprised if your anticipations are (a) being produced by a model that’s primarily epistemic rather than socially motivated, and (b) hard to unpack into a structured model without a lot more work than what’s required to generate them in the first place.