Most of the world is not longtermist, which is one reason MIRI’s comms have backfired in the past. Most humans care vastly more about themselves, their children and grandchildren than they do about future generations. Thus, it makes perfect sense to them to increase the chance of a really good future for their children while reducing the odds of longterm survival. Delaying ten years is enough, for instance, to dramatically shift the odds of personal survival for many of us. It might make perfect sense for a utilitarian longtermist to say “it’s fine if I die to gain a .1% chance of a good long term future for humanity”, but that statement sounds absolutely insane to most humans.
Most of the world is not longtermist, which is one reason MIRI’s comms have backfired in the past. Most humans care vastly more about themselves, their children and grandchildren than they do about future generations. Thus, it makes perfect sense to them to increase the chance of a really good future for their children while reducing the odds of longterm survival. Delaying ten years is enough, for instance, to dramatically shift the odds of personal survival for many of us. It might make perfect sense for a utilitarian longtermist to say “it’s fine if I die to gain a .1% chance of a good long term future for humanity”, but that statement sounds absolutely insane to most humans.