I think the Hansonian EM scenario is probably closer to the truth than the others, but it focuses perhaps too much on generalists. The DL explosion will also result in vastly powerful specialists that are still general enough to do complex human jobs, but still are limited or savant like in other respects. Yes, there’s a huge market for generalists, but that isn’t the only niche.
Take this Go AI for example—critics like to point out that it can’t drive a car, but why would you want it to? Car driving is a different niche, which will be handled by networks specifically trained for that niche to superhuman level. A generalist AGI could ‘employ’ these various specialists as needed, perhaps on fast timescales.
Specialization in human knowledge has increased over time, AI will accelerate that trend.
I think the Hansonian EM scenario is probably closer to the truth than the others, but it focuses perhaps too much on generalists. The DL explosion will also result in vastly powerful specialists that are still general enough to do complex human jobs, but still are limited or savant like in other respects. Yes, there’s a huge market for generalists, but that isn’t the only niche.
Take this Go AI for example—critics like to point out that it can’t drive a car, but why would you want it to? Car driving is a different niche, which will be handled by networks specifically trained for that niche to superhuman level. A generalist AGI could ‘employ’ these various specialists as needed, perhaps on fast timescales.
Specialization in human knowledge has increased over time, AI will accelerate that trend.