My own answer is to make predictions (commonly on Good Judgment Open), and then notice a couple of months afterwards that the events which the news predicted (Mark Esper or Paul Guedes quitting or getting fired, Lukashenko being overthrown, etc.) tend not to happen.
My own answer is to make predictions (commonly on Good Judgment Open), and then notice a couple of months afterwards that the events which the news predicted (Mark Esper or Paul Guedes quitting or getting fired, Lukashenko being overthrown, etc.) tend not to happen.