Another way to conceive of this is that it takes a certain number of competence-adjusted engineer hours to perform an integration of a novel technology into existing processes.
If AI is able to supply the engineer-hours for its own integration, it seems clear that this would change the wall-clock-time of the integration.
If the first thing AI is integrated into is automating AI R&D, then the AI’s competence will rise as an industrial output of the process being integrated. Which further accelerates the process.
The result is dramatic changes over a few months or couple of years.
Also, whether or not AI is integrated into the economy is kind of a side-note if you are facing the possibility of an agent far smarter than any human that has ever lived, and also able to parallelize copies of itself and run at 100s of times human speed. So even discussing integration into the economy as relevant presumes a plateau of capability at approximately human-level. What grounds do we have for expecting that?
Another way to conceive of this is that it takes a certain number of competence-adjusted engineer hours to perform an integration of a novel technology into existing processes.
If AI is able to supply the engineer-hours for its own integration, it seems clear that this would change the wall-clock-time of the integration.
If the first thing AI is integrated into is automating AI R&D, then the AI’s competence will rise as an industrial output of the process being integrated. Which further accelerates the process.
The result is dramatic changes over a few months or couple of years.
Also, whether or not AI is integrated into the economy is kind of a side-note if you are facing the possibility of an agent far smarter than any human that has ever lived, and also able to parallelize copies of itself and run at 100s of times human speed. So even discussing integration into the economy as relevant presumes a plateau of capability at approximately human-level. What grounds do we have for expecting that?