I definitely agree. No matter how useful something will end up being, or how simple it seems the transition will be, it always takes a long time because there is always some reason it wasn’t already being used, and because everyone has to figure out how to use it even after that.
For instance, maybe it will become a trend to replace dialogue in videogames with specially trained LLMs (on a per character basis, or just trained to keep the characters properly separate). We could obviously do it right now, but what is the likelihood of any major trend toward that in even five years? It seems pretty unlikely. Fifteen? Maybe. Fifty? Probably a successor technology trying to replace them. (I obviously think AI in general will go far slower than its biggest fans / worriers think.)
I definitely agree. No matter how useful something will end up being, or how simple it seems the transition will be, it always takes a long time because there is always some reason it wasn’t already being used, and because everyone has to figure out how to use it even after that.
For instance, maybe it will become a trend to replace dialogue in videogames with specially trained LLMs (on a per character basis, or just trained to keep the characters properly separate). We could obviously do it right now, but what is the likelihood of any major trend toward that in even five years? It seems pretty unlikely. Fifteen? Maybe. Fifty? Probably a successor technology trying to replace them. (I obviously think AI in general will go far slower than its biggest fans / worriers think.)