I’m not convinced this is the right desideratum for that purpose. Why should we care about exploitability by traders if making such trades is not actually possible given the environment and the utility function? IMO epistemic rationality is subservient to instrumental rationality, so our desiderata should be derived from the later.
This does make sense to me, and I view it as a weakness of the idea. However, the productivity of dutch-book type thinking in terms of implying properties which seem appealing for other reasons speaks heavily in favor of it, in my mind. A formal connection to more pragmatic criteria would be great.
But also, maybe I can articulate a radical-probabilist position without any recourse to dutch books… I’ll have to think more about that.
Actually I am rather skeptical/agnostic on this. For me it’s fairly easy to picture that I have a “platonic” utility function, except that the time discount is dynamically inconsistent (not exponential).
I’m not sure how to double crux with this intuition, unfortunately. When I imagine the perspective you describe, I feel like it’s rolling all dynamic inconsistency into time-preference and ignoring the role of deliberation.
My claim is that there is a type of change-over-time which is due to boundedness, and which looks like “dynamic inconsistency” from a classical bayesian perspective, but which isn’t inherently dynamically inconsistent. EG, if you “sleep on it” and wake up with a different, firmer-feeling perspective, without any articulable thing you updated on. (My point isn’t to dogmatically insist that you haven’t updated on anything, but rather, to point out that it’s useful to have the perspective where we don’t need to suppose there was evidence which justifies the update as Bayesian, in order for it to be rational.)
This does make sense to me, and I view it as a weakness of the idea. However, the productivity of dutch-book type thinking in terms of implying properties which seem appealing for other reasons speaks heavily in favor of it, in my mind. A formal connection to more pragmatic criteria would be great.
But also, maybe I can articulate a radical-probabilist position without any recourse to dutch books… I’ll have to think more about that.
I’m not sure how to double crux with this intuition, unfortunately. When I imagine the perspective you describe, I feel like it’s rolling all dynamic inconsistency into time-preference and ignoring the role of deliberation.
My claim is that there is a type of change-over-time which is due to boundedness, and which looks like “dynamic inconsistency” from a classical bayesian perspective, but which isn’t inherently dynamically inconsistent. EG, if you “sleep on it” and wake up with a different, firmer-feeling perspective, without any articulable thing you updated on. (My point isn’t to dogmatically insist that you haven’t updated on anything, but rather, to point out that it’s useful to have the perspective where we don’t need to suppose there was evidence which justifies the update as Bayesian, in order for it to be rational.)