“After that, Polymarket stopped making new CO2 markets.”
If the hourly information is public, it seems to me that this user did nothing wrong. After all, the market was inefficient. They got it closer to the real market price.
After hanging out in the Polymarket zone for a while, it became clear to me that there are at least two pretty distinct groups of people—the +EV veterans who have fun trying to beat the market and make money, and the gamblers who like to play the game of betting on their opinions and seeing who makes bank. The latter group doesn’t really like it when the +EV people find a “clever” edge like this because it makes the game less fun and fair-seeming.
There exists no third group that really wants an accurate up-to-date prediction of the CO2 level printed on the website as of the next day.
From what I can tell, most of the people who lost significant sums on the CO2 markets were generally profitable and +EV. Although I guess I’m mostly seeing input from the people who hang out on the discord all day, which is a skewed sample.
“After that, Polymarket stopped making new CO2 markets.”
If the hourly information is public, it seems to me that this user did nothing wrong. After all, the market was inefficient. They got it closer to the real market price.
After hanging out in the Polymarket zone for a while, it became clear to me that there are at least two pretty distinct groups of people—the +EV veterans who have fun trying to beat the market and make money, and the gamblers who like to play the game of betting on their opinions and seeing who makes bank. The latter group doesn’t really like it when the +EV people find a “clever” edge like this because it makes the game less fun and fair-seeming.
There exists no third group that really wants an accurate up-to-date prediction of the CO2 level printed on the website as of the next day.
From what I can tell, most of the people who lost significant sums on the CO2 markets were generally profitable and +EV. Although I guess I’m mostly seeing input from the people who hang out on the discord all day, which is a skewed sample.
Because mr co2 guy was clearly making a -EV bet that happened to pay off this time :)