Razied’s sibling argument isn’t literally quite right, but the spirit is: he’s probably been to several conferences, the chances of orgies happening have changed during them, etc.
Also “precisely 28%” is a type error when talking about market prices with some transaction cost (and where the price is truncated to two significant digits) - you probably want to read it as “28% plus or minus a couple percentage points”.
Razied’s sibling argument isn’t literally quite right, but the spirit is: he’s probably been to several conferences, the chances of orgies happening have changed during them, etc.
Also “precisely 28%” is a type error when talking about market prices with some transaction cost (and where the price is truncated to two significant digits) - you probably want to read it as “28% plus or minus a couple percentage points”.