This is a relatively banal meta-commentary on reasons people sometimes give for doing worst-case analysis, and the differences between those reasons. The post reads like a list of things with no clear through-line. There is a gesture at an important idea from a Yudkowsky post (the logistic success curve idea) but the post does not helpfully expound that idea. There is a kind of trailing-off towards the end of the post as things like “planning fallacy” seem to have been added to the list with little time taken to place them in the context of the other things on the list. In the “differences between these arguments” section, the post doesn’t clearly elucidate deep differences between the arguments, it just lists verbal responses that you might make if you are challenged on plausibility grounds in each case.
Overall, I felt that this post under-delivered on an important topic.
This is a relatively banal meta-commentary on reasons people sometimes give for doing worst-case analysis, and the differences between those reasons. The post reads like a list of things with no clear through-line. There is a gesture at an important idea from a Yudkowsky post (the logistic success curve idea) but the post does not helpfully expound that idea. There is a kind of trailing-off towards the end of the post as things like “planning fallacy” seem to have been added to the list with little time taken to place them in the context of the other things on the list. In the “differences between these arguments” section, the post doesn’t clearly elucidate deep differences between the arguments, it just lists verbal responses that you might make if you are challenged on plausibility grounds in each case.
Overall, I felt that this post under-delivered on an important topic.