If we can be convinced to privilege hypothetical entities at the expense of currently existing ones, reality-played-straight ends up looking like a crack fic
Sure. OTOH, if we give hypothetical entities no weight at all, it seems to follow naturally that any project that won’t see benefits within a century or so is not worth doing, since no actual people will benefit from it, merely hypothetical people who haven’t yet been born.
Personally, I conclude that when planning for the future, I should plan based on the expected value of that future, which includes the value of entities I expect to exist in that future. Whether those entities exist right now or not—that is, whether they are actual or hypothetical—doesn’t really matter.
I’m realizing I made some overly sweeping generalizations about “hypothetical people” there. Whoops.
Personally, I conclude that when planning for the future, I should plan based on the expected value of that future, which includes the value of entities I expect to exist in that future.
This, I don’t disagree with. Optimizing for the people we expect to exist seems fine to me; it’s the normative leap from that to “we should produce more people” that throws me off.
The distinction between those two things gets a little tricky for me to hold on to when one of the things that significantly contributes to my expectations about the existence of someone is precisely how much I value them existing… or, more precisely, how much I expect my future self to value them if and when the opportunity to create them presents itself. E.g., if I really don’t want a child, my expectation of a child of mine existing in the future should be lower than if I really want one.
Conversely, if I expect an entity X to exist a year from now if things remain as they are now, and I judge that X would, if actual, make the world worse, it seems to follow that I should take steps to prevent X from becoming actual.
It seems moderately clear to me that, while I value more people rather than fewer all else being equal, that’s not a particularly important value; there are lots of things that I’ll trade it for.
Sure. OTOH, if we give hypothetical entities no weight at all, it seems to follow naturally that any project that won’t see benefits within a century or so is not worth doing, since no actual people will benefit from it, merely hypothetical people who haven’t yet been born.
Personally, I conclude that when planning for the future, I should plan based on the expected value of that future, which includes the value of entities I expect to exist in that future. Whether those entities exist right now or not—that is, whether they are actual or hypothetical—doesn’t really matter.
I’m realizing I made some overly sweeping generalizations about “hypothetical people” there. Whoops.
This, I don’t disagree with. Optimizing for the people we expect to exist seems fine to me; it’s the normative leap from that to “we should produce more people” that throws me off.
The distinction between those two things gets a little tricky for me to hold on to when one of the things that significantly contributes to my expectations about the existence of someone is precisely how much I value them existing… or, more precisely, how much I expect my future self to value them if and when the opportunity to create them presents itself. E.g., if I really don’t want a child, my expectation of a child of mine existing in the future should be lower than if I really want one.
Conversely, if I expect an entity X to exist a year from now if things remain as they are now, and I judge that X would, if actual, make the world worse, it seems to follow that I should take steps to prevent X from becoming actual.
It seems moderately clear to me that, while I value more people rather than fewer all else being equal, that’s not a particularly important value; there are lots of things that I’ll trade it for.