I’m still having trouble trying to assign value to cryogenics. Mostly because I’m having trouble assessing the odds of it working.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that signing up for Alcor costs $500/year, for the next 40 years. That comes to $20,000 (more then that if I invest some of the money earlier instead, but let’s skip that for the sake of argument). It does seem that there’s a non-zero chance that cryogenics could save my life. On the other hand, I’m having trouble weighing that against the chance that that same $20,000 40 years from now might otherwise let me purchase, let’s say, the first generation of longevity treatments, the “first bridge” as it’s sometimes called, which will let me live long enough to make it to the second generation of longevity treatments, ect.
I’m not even sure I have enough information to sensibly compare those two probabilities at this point.
I’m still having trouble trying to assign value to cryogenics. Mostly because I’m having trouble assessing the odds of it working.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that signing up for Alcor costs $500/year, for the next 40 years. That comes to $20,000 (more then that if I invest some of the money earlier instead, but let’s skip that for the sake of argument). It does seem that there’s a non-zero chance that cryogenics could save my life. On the other hand, I’m having trouble weighing that against the chance that that same $20,000 40 years from now might otherwise let me purchase, let’s say, the first generation of longevity treatments, the “first bridge” as it’s sometimes called, which will let me live long enough to make it to the second generation of longevity treatments, ect.
I’m not even sure I have enough information to sensibly compare those two probabilities at this point.
Jeff’s spreadsheet might help you evaluate the odds. (Although see the discussion of this approach.)