This seems to me to argue yet again that we need to collect an explicit dataset of prior big long-term sci/tech based forecasts and how they turned out. If I assign a ~5+% chance to cryonics working, then for you to argue that goes against an outside view you need to show that substantially less than 5% of similar forecasts turned out to be wrong.
This seems to me to argue yet again that we need to collect an explicit dataset of prior big long-term sci/tech based forecasts and how they turned out. If I assign a ~5+% chance to cryonics working, then for you to argue that goes against an outside view you need to show that substantially less than 5% of similar forecasts turned out to be wrong.