Probably not. I could probably track down an ex-girlfriend’s brother who was in the CIA, who also had looming fears dating from the mid-80s (He’s who explained it to me, orginally)...
Now, there may be books written about the subject (I would expect there to be a few), but I can’t imagine anyone in any crowd I have ever hung with being into them. I’ll check with some Military Historians I know to see.
Edit: After checking with a course from the Journal of International Security, he says that there is all kinds of anecdotal evidence of guys standing around the water cooler speculating about the end of the Cold War (on all Mil/Intel fronts), yet there are only two people who made any sort of hard prediction (and one of those was kinda after the fact—I am sure that will draw a question or two. The after the fact guy was from Stanford, he will forward a name as soon as he checks his facts).
He also says that all sorts of Policy Wanks managed to pull quotes from past papers citing that they had predicted such a thing, yet if one examines their work, one would find that they also had made many other wild predictions regarding the Soviet Union eventually eclipsing the West.
Now that I have looked into this, I am anxious to know more.
OH! As for the defection rates. Most of that is still classified, but I’d bet that there is some data on it. I completely forgot to ask about that part.
Is this track record documented anywhere?
Probably not. I could probably track down an ex-girlfriend’s brother who was in the CIA, who also had looming fears dating from the mid-80s (He’s who explained it to me, orginally)...
Now, there may be books written about the subject (I would expect there to be a few), but I can’t imagine anyone in any crowd I have ever hung with being into them. I’ll check with some Military Historians I know to see.
Edit: After checking with a course from the Journal of International Security, he says that there is all kinds of anecdotal evidence of guys standing around the water cooler speculating about the end of the Cold War (on all Mil/Intel fronts), yet there are only two people who made any sort of hard prediction (and one of those was kinda after the fact—I am sure that will draw a question or two. The after the fact guy was from Stanford, he will forward a name as soon as he checks his facts).
He also says that all sorts of Policy Wanks managed to pull quotes from past papers citing that they had predicted such a thing, yet if one examines their work, one would find that they also had made many other wild predictions regarding the Soviet Union eventually eclipsing the West.
Now that I have looked into this, I am anxious to know more.
OH! As for the defection rates. Most of that is still classified, but I’d bet that there is some data on it. I completely forgot to ask about that part.