Finding a convincing reference class in which cryonics, singularity, superhuman AI etc. are highly probable—I invite you to try in comments, but I doubt this will lead anywhere.
Try the reference class of shocking things that science was predicted to never do, e.g. flying machines or transmutation of elements or travel to the planets.
I like this reference class due to the related class of “overly specific things that science was later predicted to do,” such as flying cars, houses on the moon.
Capabilities seem to happen, expected applications less (or later?)
Try the reference class of shocking things that science was predicted to never do, e.g. flying machines or transmutation of elements or travel to the planets.
I like this reference class due to the related class of “overly specific things that science was later predicted to do,” such as flying cars, houses on the moon.
Capabilities seem to happen, expected applications less (or later?)