Works great when you’re drawing from the same barrel as previous occasions. Project prediction, traffic forecasts, which way to drive to the airport… Predicting the far future from the past—you can’t call that the Outside View and give it the privileges and respect of the Outside View. It’s an attempt to reason by analogy, no more, no less.
Works great when you’re drawing from the same barrel as previous occasions. Project prediction, traffic forecasts, which way to drive to the airport… Predicting the far future from the past—you can’t call that the Outside View and give it the privileges and respect of the Outside View. It’s an attempt to reason by analogy, no more, no less.