“Now in some situations we have precise enough data that inside view might give correct answer—but for almost all such cases I’d expect outside view to be as usable and not far away in correctness.”
Why? The above statement seems spectacularly wrong to me, and to be contradicted by all commonplace human experience, on a small scale or on a large scale.
“Reference class of predictions based on technology which isn’t even remotely here has perhaps non-zero but still ridiculously tiny success rate.”
What? Of such a tech, fairly well understood, EVER arising?
“reference class of beliefs in coming of a new world, be it good or evil, is huge and with consistent 0% success rate. ”
“Now in some situations we have precise enough data that inside view might give correct answer—but for almost all such cases I’d expect outside view to be as usable and not far away in correctness.”
Why? The above statement seems spectacularly wrong to me, and to be contradicted by all commonplace human experience, on a small scale or on a large scale.
“Reference class of predictions based on technology which isn’t even remotely here has perhaps non-zero but still ridiculously tiny success rate.”
What? Of such a tech, fairly well understood, EVER arising?
“reference class of beliefs in coming of a new world, be it good or evil, is huge and with consistent 0% success rate. ”
I count several.