These all seem like good examples of Outside-View-based long-term forecasting, though they could well have been somewhat cherry-picked. That is, you are citing a group of cases where things did in fact turn out the same way as last time.
Suppose we consider nuclear weapons, heavier-than-air powered flight, the Cold War, the Cold War’s outcome, the moon landing, the dawn of computers, the dawn of the Internet, &c. What would the Outside View have said about these cases? How well did smart Inside Viewers like Nelson or Drexler do on “predicting the rise of the Internet”, or how well did Szilard do on “predicting nuclear detente”, relative to anyone who tried an Outside View? According to TAW, the Outside View is “that’s never happened so it never will happen”, and honestly this is usually what I hear from those formally or informally pleading the Outside View! It also seems to have been what Szilard heard as well. So while Nelson or Drexler or Szilard should have widened their conference intervals, as I advocate in “The Weak Inside View”, they did better than the so-called Outside View, I’d say.
None of those inventions were big enough to change our larger reference classes: flight didn’t push up trend GDP growth, nuclear weapons didn’t change international relations much (a country is more powerful in proportion to its GDP, spending on military and population), the end of the cold war didn’t bring world peace. Rather, the long run trends like 3% growth and a gradual reduction in violence have continued. All the previous game-changers have ended up leaving the game largely unchanged, possibly because we adapt to them (like The Lucas critique). If all these inventions haven’t changed the fundamentals, we should be doubtful FAI or uploads will either.
In short: the outside view doesn’t say that unprecedented events won’t occur, but it does deny that they’ll have a big change.
A better counter-example might be the industrial revolution, but that’s hardly one event.
WTF?!? Nukes didn’t change international relations? We HAVE world peace. No declarations of war, no total wars. Current occupations are different in kind from real wars.
Also, flight continued a trend in transport speeds which corresponded to continuing trends in GDP.
Compare now to Pax Britannia or Pax Romana. The general trend towards peace has continued, and there are still small wars. Also, I hardly think the absense of a declaration is particularly significant.
Exactly- flight continued a pre-existing trend; it didn’t change history.
These all seem like good examples of Outside-View-based long-term forecasting, though they could well have been somewhat cherry-picked. That is, you are citing a group of cases where things did in fact turn out the same way as last time.
Suppose we consider nuclear weapons, heavier-than-air powered flight, the Cold War, the Cold War’s outcome, the moon landing, the dawn of computers, the dawn of the Internet, &c. What would the Outside View have said about these cases? How well did smart Inside Viewers like Nelson or Drexler do on “predicting the rise of the Internet”, or how well did Szilard do on “predicting nuclear detente”, relative to anyone who tried an Outside View? According to TAW, the Outside View is “that’s never happened so it never will happen”, and honestly this is usually what I hear from those formally or informally pleading the Outside View! It also seems to have been what Szilard heard as well. So while Nelson or Drexler or Szilard should have widened their conference intervals, as I advocate in “The Weak Inside View”, they did better than the so-called Outside View, I’d say.
None of those inventions were big enough to change our larger reference classes: flight didn’t push up trend GDP growth, nuclear weapons didn’t change international relations much (a country is more powerful in proportion to its GDP, spending on military and population), the end of the cold war didn’t bring world peace. Rather, the long run trends like 3% growth and a gradual reduction in violence have continued. All the previous game-changers have ended up leaving the game largely unchanged, possibly because we adapt to them (like The Lucas critique). If all these inventions haven’t changed the fundamentals, we should be doubtful FAI or uploads will either.
In short: the outside view doesn’t say that unprecedented events won’t occur, but it does deny that they’ll have a big change.
A better counter-example might be the industrial revolution, but that’s hardly one event.
WTF?!? Nukes didn’t change international relations? We HAVE world peace. No declarations of war, no total wars. Current occupations are different in kind from real wars.
Also, flight continued a trend in transport speeds which corresponded to continuing trends in GDP.
“We HAVE world peace”—I get your meaning, but I think we should set our standards a bit higher for “peace.”
Compare now to Pax Britannia or Pax Romana. The general trend towards peace has continued, and there are still small wars. Also, I hardly think the absense of a declaration is particularly significant.
Exactly- flight continued a pre-existing trend; it didn’t change history.