You seem to be confused. It isn’t supposed to follow—it is meant as a contrast! Kompo estimated 1 bit of evidence of crackpotness is embedded in prominent misuse of language. He then reaffirms that despite this he isn’t saying that singinst is a crackpot institute… that is what declaring a one bit update on a very low prior means and there is no evidence suggesting that kompo intended anything else. He is making a general gesture of respect to the institute so it is clear that he isn’t using this issue as an excuse to insult the institute itself.
I assumed you were, because you spoke of evidence likelihoods and Bayesian evidence in favour of propositions: but now I fear those are just locally high-status words you were using, because when you take a low prior and update on 2:1 evidence you are left with a low prior.
He knows this, has used bayesian reasoning correctly in the past in his posts and has not made a mistake here.
You seem to be confused. It isn’t supposed to follow—it is meant as a contrast! Kompo estimated 1 bit of evidence of crackpotness is embedded in prominent misuse of language. He then reaffirms that despite this he isn’t saying that singinst is a crackpot institute… that is what declaring a one bit update on a very low prior means and there is no evidence suggesting that kompo intended anything else. He is making a general gesture of respect to the institute so it is clear that he isn’t using this issue as an excuse to insult the institute itself.
He knows this, has used bayesian reasoning correctly in the past in his posts and has not made a mistake here.